Helena Valley, Montana

Probabilistic simulation of ricochet from impact area at Helena Valley

Neptune and Company, Inc. applied a holistic decision analysis approach to this site that combines sample design, risk assessment and risk management to promote optimization of resources in the face of uncertainty. We utilized Bayesian probabilistic methods incorporating munitions data and literature information. We elicited expert opinion and stakeholder input, including: firing line, target area, types of munitions, munitions ballistics, landscape effects and exposure scenarios. We also facilitated an iterative cycle of uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis and value of information analysis to determine the benefit of future data collection. The project manager estimated that our analyses resulted in cost savings of $10 million for range investigations.